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Writer's pictureKevin Berend

Prime Numbers

Updated: Jan 15, 2023


Primoz Roglič at the 2022 Criterium du Dauphine. [Team Jumbo-Visma]

176 riders. Three weeks. The Tour de France is the most well-known and most prestigious bike race in the world. It has been held every year since 1903, except during the two world wars and the Covid-19 pandemic.


21 stages. 2,083 miles. The exact route changes every year, but returns to certain regions as tradition: the northern coast, medieval walled cities, the cobbled roads of wine country, and the steep heights of the Alps and Pyrenees. The longest stage is 136 miles. The final stage always takes place in Paris, finishing on a circuit of the Champs-Élysées.


22 teams. Bicycle racing is a team sport. Each team of eight riders is selected for certain specialties--lean and lanky for the climbers, stocky and explosive for the sprinters. But each team has only one leader, who goes for the General Classification, or overall win. He is supported by his teammates who carry extra water bottles and food, lead pace lines to break air resistance, and surround and protect him from crashes. A GC contender must be good all-around, with both power and endurance.


90%. Air resistance is the greatest force working against a cyclist, and it increases exponentially with speed. Above 9 mph, it is the dominant force of resistance; at 30 mph, it absorbs 90% of a rider's effort. To minimize the effect of air resistance, pros ride in a tight group called a peloton. Riders at the front do most of the work pushing through the wind, while those behind (such as the GC contenders) can follow along in their wake. Riders who try to break away from the pack burn energy at a higher rate, and can be usually be reeled back in.


2007. Primoz Roglič was born in 1989 in the town of Trbovlje, in central-eastern Slovenia. His name means "first".


Roglič began his career as a ski jumper. He holds two Continental Cup titles, the second level of international ski jumping, and was the Junior World Team Event Champion in 2007. That same year, he was performing a training run on a hill in northwestern Slovenia when he was thrown off balance on takeoff and suffered a jarring crash. Upon recovering, he continued to train, but remained shaken and stopped progressing.


80.2 ml/min./kg. Five years later, at 22, Roglič went in for testing at a top Slovenian sports lab. They measured his VO2 max, the maximum amount of oxygen the body can consume during exercise. The average for a person his age is about 40. Roglič put up an astonishing 80.2. He switched to cycling and immediately started racking up wins. “This kid has a jet engine,” said an early team director.


75 weeks. Since signing with Dutch team Jumbo-Visma in 2016, Roglič has spent 75 weeks at the top of the UCI Men's road racing world ranking, more than anyone else. In that time he has produced 65 wins, in monuments (traditional one-day races), stages, and GC finishes. His recent resume includes wins at Paris-Nice, Criterium du Dauphine, the Olympic time trial, and the past three Vuelta a Espana (Tour of Spain) in a row.


When teammates describe Roglič, they use words like “focused”, “driven,” and someone who is “detailed-oriented.”


“He is just wired differently. He can do numbers that other people cannot,” said Jumbo-Visma teammate George Bennett, who helped pace Roglič to victory in the Vuelta. “He is the standard right now. He is the guy to beat.”


But Roglič has a reputation for risk-taking, a trait that frequently gets him into trouble. He rides with a daring, all-or-nothing style, pushing himself to the limit, and sometimes beyond. “His big problem was staying in the group without crashing,” said one of his Slovenian Olympic teammates.


Zero. A Tour win remains elusive. Roglič has been thwarted in five attempts so far. In 2017, he became the fist Slovenian to win a stage. He came in second overall in 2020. In 2021, he crashed out on Stage 3 while entering the final miles at the head of the race.


Roglic's main rival is Tadej Pogačar (age 23), another Slovenian, who has won the Tour twice in recent years. Coming off a win in the UAE Tour this spring and ranked world #1, he was again the favorite.


The two are easy to pick out of the peloton. Pogačar, in the red and white kit of team UAE Emirates, can scarcely ever wipe the smile from his face, no matter how grueling the conditions. Roglič, in the bumblebee yellow and black of Jumbo-Visma, has a poker face and a posture all his own: head down, cocked slightly to the side.


The Roglič-Pogačar rivalry has made both riders superstars in their home country, and breathed new life into a sport that, for spectators, tends to be pretty rigid. Nearly ten years younger, Pogačar is the cool, young gun holding--for now--his own against a more experienced but unpredictable Roglič.



Primoz Roglič and Tadej Pogačar on Stage 13 of the 2020 Tour de France. [Eurosport.com/Getty Images]

5.7 watts/kg. The amount of power a cyclist can produce is measured in watts. To increase speed, you can either create more power or decrease weight. Pros therefore measure output in watts per kilo. A beginner might be able to average 100 watts (0.6 watts/kg) over an hour ride. A trained cyclist (me) can push around 240 (3.2 watts/kg). Roglic can sustain 389 (5.7 watts/kg).


Muscles produce lactic acid (the burning sensation) as a byproduct of aerobic respiration. Functional Threshold Pace, or FTP, is the level of activity above which muscles begin to accumulate lactic acid more quickly than it can be cleared. Efforts greater than FTP cannot be sustained for long, and eventually lead to muscular shutdown and a decreasing pace. Cyclists therefore try to ride the line, staying at threshold for as long as possible without going over. Holding it for even a few seconds longer than the other guy can make the difference between victory and defeat on a stage, between wearing the yellow jersey and losing it.


200 seconds. The margin of victory in the Tour de France is usually just a couple minutes, and time trials and climbs are where more significant chunks of time can be gained or lost. That's because in those two disciplines air resistance matters less, placing more importance on the amount of power a rider can generate and sustain.


The two time trial stages are individual events in which riders race the clock from a staggered start. No aerodynamic advantage or tactical games from the peloton, just pedal hard and go fast. Climbs are upward grinds that can last for more than an hour, usually at threshold pace. Eventually riders begin to use up all the energy stored in their legs as glycogen, and drop off. This is called "cracking", "bonking", or "hitting the wall".


No matter how much a rider might be suffering, though, it's important not to show it, lest his opponent smell blood in the water. That's where Roglič's poker face comes in. “He’s pretty hard to read,” teammate George Bennett said. “He keeps his cards pretty close to his chest." On the other hand, it can be to a rider's advantage to try to fool his opponents into thinking he's worse off than he is. Roglič wins by making his rivals think that they have him on the ropes, then attacks, exploding past them like they're standing still.


“There’s not much that you can do when he’s in second gear,” said rider Simon Yates at the finish of Stage 8 of Paris-Nice. "He’s not even breathing and everyone else is panting like they’re on their deathbeds.”


Roglič with his son, after winning Stage 8 of the 2022 Criterium du Dauphine. [Team Jumbo-Visma]

32 years. Roglič is older than his teammates, but remains humble, a team player. "I'm not the guy who speaks loudly and shows off," he said. "In our sport, you have to show what you can do out on the road, with your legs, not on television."


He brings his family into his work, and can often be seen embracing his longtime partner at the finish line. He brings his young son onto the podium, jumping up in a trademark one-footed landing, a salute to his ski jumping days.


One. The 2022 Tour de France was held in July. On stage 5, Roglič crashed into a hay bale that had been dislodged into the road by a motorcycle, dislocating his shoulder, which he had to put back into place himself. He stayed in the race for a few more stages to support teammate and eventual winner Jonas Vingegaard before withdrawing. Tadej Pogačar took second place.


"I like to see difficulties in life as a challenge rather than as a problem," Roglič has said. "I think I'm delivering some kind of message, about not giving up, and I think people appreciate that."


There remains only one number left in his mind: one more year to wait.




Extra: Tour de France riders may burn up to 6,000 calories per day. Making it to the end means not only performing well during each stage, but allowing for rest and recovery to be able to do it again the next day, and the next. Time off the bike is spent in extreme sloth, trying to expend as little energy as possible. One team's rule goes like this: "If you don't have to stand, sit. If you don't have to sit, lie down. If you don't have to be awake, sleep." Here's a fun video of what it's like to be a Tour rider.

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2 Comments


rlb125
Oct 08, 2022

Interesting insights for a sport that I knew nothing about.

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Kevin Berend
Kevin Berend
Oct 08, 2022
Replying to

Thanks Uncle Rick!

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